Hawke – Australia 2025

@nimalan those 4 seats will be on the libs radar in 2028 they should win mcewen and blair after the redistribution the margin should only be about 2.5% if qld does not gain another seat. gorton and hawke will defeintely be targets for the libs. and i think bendigo the nats will probly win if lathlean gives it another go. especially if allen is still premier. ballarat will probaly be another target as the libs got a small swing there this time. though the nats might have a go there as well.

@ John
I certainly agree that those 4 seats are still on the radar. Labor did not have a thumping result like they did in South East Melbourne. Melton electrification will not be done by 2028. However, as i mentioned McEwen was held for the Howard Era so it is a traditional marginal not a Red Wall seat so it is not a replacement for the Teals. Tony Abbott just failed to win it in 2013 because there was a Pro-Labor redistribution that put in Strongly Labor voting Cragieburn into the seat. On the 2010 boundaries Tony Abbott would have easily won McEwen in 2013 and probably held on to in 2016 and 2022 if they had a good member. However, a seat like Calwell is on the Rader and the Libs would be wise to run dead and let Joseph Youhana take it

@nimalan in regards to mcewen should vic regain a seat after 2028 it would remove the macedon ranges from mcewen at which point they should easily hold/win it after that. its that area and castelmaine that also saved labor in bendigo

in regards to calwell it was probably the large field and Moslih that saved Labor. had the greens not gotten over Youhana he probably would of won off greens preferences.

@ John
Youhana is a greater threat to Labor then Carly Moore. Youhana has connections in the Assyrian community and as he is Christian the Libs will be happy to preference him over Labor. What Palestine has done though in Calwell is that it made Muslims forget about lockdowns TOP did much worse than UAP did in 2022. I think the Libs would be wise to run dead in Calwell, in Scullin if there an independent from the Macedonian community for example then Labor could loose it if Libs are happy to run dead.

@Nimalan other than the Hunter and Penrith City Council where the Labor MPs have personal votes (Londonderry is Deputy Premier Prue Carr’s seat, while Penrith is more at risk), the state Liberals do better in both the inner and outer suburbs of Sydney.

@ Nether Portal
Agree, the State Libs do well in Ethnic areas of Sydney as well for example Riverstone, Parramatta, Drommoyne, Ryde often better than Federal Libs. I think the Hunter Region is also due to the climate wars at a Federal level where Coalition has tried to win those to offset the Teal seats. Agree Londonderry in Prue Carr;s seat and she is popular locally. Also there is no path for government at a state level even minority without Penrith so State Labor is forced to compete there.

Now the Nats have been pushed out of the TCP in Hunter despite the Coalition trying really hard to win areas like that. Huge swings to Labor in Paterson and Shortland too.

@ Dan M
The issue for Labor in that in Paterson they have not yet recovered to pre-Adani levels in 2016 while in Shortland they have but still below 2007/2010 levels. Once Labor recovers to those levels they can feel they have won the climate wars.

That’s because of the str9ng one nation vote in Hunter plus the decent candidate in Stuart bonds in a better cycle it may have been winnable. Hunter in its next form may be winnable due to the surplus along the north coast and Hunter seats equating to about 50% of a quota. So a new seat might be created and one in Sydney abolished. The new seat would resemble the old Hunter prior to its 2016 abolition and the current Hunter would resemble the old Charlton.

Hawke was touted as an at-risk seat before the election. It was seen as a canary in the coal mine. There’s an aging state Labor government with a brand issue. There was also Dutton’s targeting of outer suburban seats, especially in Melbourne, trying to capture disaffected voters. I recall even seats like Gorton, Aston, Isaacs and Bruce were talked about as potential targets.

Victoria was a battleground state due to the number of voters that could potentially convert, a huge swag of seats and a strong anti-lockdown sentiment from the previous election. There were lots of attack ads linking Premier Allan with Albanese, even in Brisbane of all places.

It’s hard to conclude whether the state Labor brand (despite its age and unpopularity) held back federal Labor. Federal Labor’s 2PP in Victoria ended up higher than in WA but lower than in Tas and SA. Victoria was heavily targetted and millions went into the campaign. A lot went to tradtionally Labor heartland seats with Labor 2PP margins of over 10%. It could’ve been that the two opposing forces negated each other – anti-Dutton vote was greater than the anti-Allan vote.

There was no 2PP swing in Hawke and overall, a 3% 2PP swing to Labor in outer metro electorates in Vic. It’s smaller swing in outer metro electorates of most other states.
https://tallyroom.aec.gov.au/HouseTppByStateByDemographic-31496.htm

@Votante It’s probably that the unpopularity of Jacinta Allan is the reason why Labor’s swing is minuscule compared to the other states with popular Labor governments (bar Tasmania and Queensland).

@Tommo9
The State governememnt issues would have been a factor but the beauty of the Victorian Labor campaign machine is that they are good at sandbagging/focusing where it matters. This why Labor was still able to win all seats that they had on the bingo card while the statewide swing was miniscule it occured where it mattered. They picked up Aston , Menzies and Deakin, they got a status quo result in the seats they were concerned about (Hawke, Gorton and McEwan) blew out the margins in Bruce, Holt so they are not in reach in 2028. I dont think they would have won Flinders/Casey even if Jacinta Allan was popular. Monash has trended right so Labor no longer cares. La Trobe was a good result they won pretty much all booths in the Urban part. This is Labor best ever result in Victoria at a Federal election.

@Tommo9, it could’ve been the unpopularity of state Labor meant that Victoria was heavily targetted. It could also be that the 25c fuel excise discount minimised the flow of Liberal voters to Labor in the outer suburbs.

To Labor’s credit, as Nimalan pointed out, they got swings where it mattered. They defended their own seats and won Menzies and Deakin as well as Melbourne (by surprise).

*picked up Aston based on General election results i mean.
Also in 2022 Labor suffered a statewide swing against it but increased it seat count because it was able to focus where it mattered.

@Nimalan: “..the beauty of the Victorian Labor campaign machine is that they are good at sandbagging/focusing where it matters.”

This is why I’m sure Victorian Labor will hold onto government (albeit with a significant swing against them) in 2026. Yes, the government is unpopular, seen as tired, there’s a “time’s up” factor, all of that, and that’s why I’m sure there will be a pretty significant swing and loss of seats.

However, the bottom line is:

– The Liberals need to net a total of 17 seats from their 2022 result, which takes them up to 8% on the pendulum. Every seat up to that point they don’t gain, is a seat above 8% that they need to gain. Note these seats range from inner city to sandbelt to eastern suburbs to outer north/west to regional.

– Labor only need to sandbag a handful of them to retain government.

And, like you say, Labor are a campaign machine and typically excellent at sandbagging seats where it matters. It’s very hard to imagine that Labor won’t sandbag at least 4-5 of those first 17 seats ALP v LIB seats on the pendulum, which then makes the Liberals need to win 4-5 seats above that.

And at that point, you’re looking at seats in areas that had significant swings TO Labor at the federal election. And while fed & state are different, and they will probably have swings against them in 2026, we’re talking about seats on margins of around 9% here…. Will a 5% swing to federal Labor in some of these areas (Bruce & Isaacs type areas) translate to a >9% swing against state Labor, a difference of 14%? Very doubtful.

Agree Trent, the Victorian Liberals heading into 2010 with Ted Baillieu needed to gain 14 seats for a majority which they barely accomplished. Given federal trends which have seen the Liberals go backwards in their traditional heartland areas (Eastern Melbourne), it is hard to see them picking up 17 in 2026. The best situation will be a low double-digit gain (10-15 seats) which puts them in striking distance for winning in 2030.

@ Trent
I agree. Also Calwell had a notional swing to Labor. My Estimate is that Greenvale on Federal figures would be a very safe Labor seat again maybe 12% TPP. It was seen as a replacement or breaking Red Wall. If you can calculate Greenvale that will be great. Also Brad Battin seat of Berwick maybe Labor on Federal figures and the Narre Warrens would likely have a margin over 10%
Yoh An, Ted Ballieu needed 13 seats not 14. As Nats won East Gippsland he only needed 12 on a 6.3% uniform swing but even then Labor sandbagged Bendigo East, Ripon and Ballarat West which were first 13 so Libs had to win Carrum and Seympour up the pendulum.

I don’t think it’s impossible for the Coalition to win the next Victorian state election. What if it ends up being a big turning point like the last New Zealand general election?

Tony Barry once said the Victorian Libs are where hope goes to die and they can ruin Taylor Swift’s career if you just give them a month.

I don’t think it’s impossible either, but just very unlikely.

I think they could win 10-12 seats potentially. Labor could also lose its majority and finish on 42-43 seats.

But the federal campaign also showed while mid-term polling can reflect dissatisfaction, it doesn’t necessarily turn into swings during the actual election campaign unless the opposition can present an attractive alternative vision.

The Liberals have really struggled with that, meanwhile as Nimalan said Labor really know how to sandbag seats, and their campaigns are generally very strong. They also have FAR more campaign resources than the Libs.

If they have to win seats like Mordialloc, on 8.3% margins in areas which just had 5-6% federal swings to Labor despite the state-drag, it’s really hard to see those big margins being erased.

Seats within the 17 lowest on the pendulum such as Box Hill, Bentleigh and Ringwood on margins between 7-8% look very unlikely to flip, so they’re the kind of seats that will cause the Libs to need gains above the 17 lowest on the pendulum.

@ Trent
What do you think about Greenvale. Look at notional polling booth results on Federal Figures
Booths notional ALP TPP
1. Meadow Heights 77.55% 8.69% Swing to Labor
2. Meadow Heights Central 78.01% 10.22% Swing to Labor
3. Meadow Heights South (Bethel Primary School) 79.13% 7.13% swing to Labor
3. Roxburgh Homestead 73.45% TPP 5.35% Swing Labor
4. Roxburgh Park 75.45% 2.17% Swing to Labor
5. Roxburh Park North 68.34% 2% swing to Labor
6. Roxburgh Rise 73.01 6.06% swing to Labor
7. Greenvale 60.39% 8.35% swing to Labor
8. Greenvale North 63.07% 9.58% Swing to Labor
9. Greenvale South 51% 1.81% swing to Libs
10. Westmeadows 58.54% 2.27% Swing to Libs
11. Attwood 59.59% 0.6% swing to Libs
These are only ordinary polling day booths we still need postal, prepoolls and absents

PPVC/EAV and Hospital includes all Calwell ones not just within Greenvale
1.Special Hospital Team 1 69.09% 7.35% swing to Labor
2. Special Hospital Team 2-65.79% 4.04 swing to Labor
3. Special Hospital Team 3 76.92% 15.29% swing to Labor
4. Brunswick Calwell PPVC 69.8% 6.42% swing to Labor
5. Broadmeadows Calwell PPVC 64.34 -3.08% swing to Libs
6. Epping Calwell PPVC 62.89% 1.54% Swing to Labor
7. Cragieburn Calwell PPVC 1.95% swing to Libs
8. Avondale Heights Calwell PPVC 57.99 2.99% swing to Labor
10. Essendon Callwell PPVC 53.42 a 2.49% swing to Labor

the problem is Jacinta Allen could be under threat in Bendigo East. forcing them to divert resources and time to hold that seat and that prevents her from campaigning elsewhere

Labor threw a lot of resources at this seat to the extent where they had a campaign manager here which is unusual for a traditionally safe seat. I must admit I was expecting a whack against the government here but it appears the margin is almost identical to 2022 results. Seats like Hawke, McEwen and Bendigo are must wins if the Liberals want a chance to return to office at the federal level.

@ SpaceFish
Libs dont need to win a majority of Victorian seats to win government Federally. It is still esasier to win Kooyong, Menzies, Chisholm than Hawke, Gorton or Bendigo. Labor did not throw resources at Bendigo as they did not have it on their rader, while the Nats did well in Bendigo i doubt the Libs could have they are not as well resourced.

I think the Coalition can pick up Bendigo in 2028, but it’s too early to predict (though I am confident that it will remain marginal for either party). As for the state election Labor will need to sandbag both Bendigo seats as Jacinta Allan is unpopular so even her own seat could potentially be at risk.

@NP if Lathlean runs in bendigo east she is toast. labor only won bendigo thanks to the surge in in labor support ecause of liberal stupidity and castlemaine/kyneton those areas arent in bendigo east

Underestimate Labor and Jacinta Allan at your own peril given that the same posters said that Steven Miles was toast in Murrumba last year yet he kept it with a minuscule swing against him. Given the state of the Victorian Liberals tearing each other apart I can see this seat going marginal but not a definitive goner.

Bendigo West won’t go to the Liberals or Nationals. That seat is very left wing thanks to Castlemaine and even Bendigo west of the railway line itself didn’t really swing rightwards as much during the federal election.

Bendigo West is safe for Labor as it does not really have any rural conservative areas like Elmore and it has mainly Low income suburbs and Castlemain. Bendigo East is under threat by Nats but probably not Libs. However, Bendigo East does not have Rochester either. Only thing is Labor will be better prepared in 2026 they did not see it coming this time.
Eureka is possibly under threat but not Wendouree.

Agree Tommo, once the campaign starts it can be unpredictable. Any falter by the Coalition and/or their candidate can be a game changer despite the overall optics of the incumbent government.

Tommo to be fair we made that prediction before the abortion issue reared its head.

Nimalab but it does a bit of Loddon shire. Though I do intend to fix that. Also eureka should be a Nat gain. Wendouree might be. Ballarat did see a small swing to the libs in may

Wendouree is entirely an Urban seat and has a 11.9% margin so i dont think is in play. Eureka is a Battleground seat i agree and will be a seat that gets a lot of attention. Even if Wendouree gets twice the swing that Federal libs got in Ballarat it is still a safe Labor seat.

@Nimalan @Tommo9 I agree that Bendigo West is safe but Bendigo East could come under threat.

@Yoh An I think the same should apply to Labor to, if their candidate messes up then they’re gone as well. Australians don’t default to voting Labor.

@John and it turns out the abortion issue was just a scare campaign, since now unless the standing orders that prohibit abortion debates in Queensland are removed (which won’t happen) there is no way Queensland can recriminalise abortion.

Agree NP, some examples of poor Labor campaigns definitely include the recent NT election (lack of distinguishment from the CLP) and also QLD 2012 where Labor went too hard on Campbell Newman’s personal life.

@Yoh An I think what voters saw in the NT was that Labor said they were gonna go hard on crime but voters knew they were just copying the CLP to get votes because they hadn’t gone hard on crime in their entire eight years of government. Now the CLP is.

@nimalan but that was a muted swing off the back of a poor liberal campaign and federal issues. theres also the fact the nats may also contest it and they can do better based on the federal results in bendigo.

@np exactly but it was effective in the campaign in damaging the vote

@ John
But Wendouree is not rural at all look at a map it entirely urban so i dont think Nats have a brand there unlike in parts of Bendigo.
In anycase, see the Casey thread where Libs did well i am keen for your analysis.

@nimalan good point i was thinking about Ballarat federal and forgot Wendouree is different. still i think a liberal swing of at least 5% people in these seat are being taken for granted by labor and in these places were sold a lie about bringing the commonwealth games to regional areas to win votes.

Yes Wendouree has no rural areas or even semirural and quite working class i agree Commonwealth Games can lead to a backlash and a swing of 5% but that is still no where near enough to win it,